In a time of great change and transformation arguably the biggest one will be mankind’s ability to cope with- if not manage, the rapidly changing climate all over the world. Though not as immediately impactful as- say, the state of economic growth, in our daily lives, the change in climatic patterns across the world will easily have a greater long-term and possibly disastrous impact on us. As Cop27 gets underway in Egypt, time is rapidly running out for global leaders to come up with plans to avert what seems like an impending train crash.
The scientific body of work on man’s effect on our global climate through our industrial processes is vast and undeniable. Unfortunately, it has been countered over the decades by those vested interests who- much like the tobacco and the sugar lobbies, or the arms company manufacturers, did for their own selfish interests, have raised doubts despite knowing the doubts to be false for over 40 years. The fruit of their lobbying and marketing efforts is the state of ignorance and denialism that exists today about the need to re-examine our dependence on fossil fuels:
“…experts agree that Exxon became a leader in campaigns of confusion. By 1989 the company had helped create the Global Climate Coalition (disbanded in 2002) to question the scientific basis for concern about climate change. It also helped to prevent the U.S. from signing the international treaty on climate known as the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 to control greenhouse gases.” (Scientific American, October 26, 2016)
Again- unfortunately, our addiction to fossil fuels is just the tip of the problem. The root cause can be traced back to the culture of rampant materialism that has inflicted the top of society globally. The need to produce endlessly, consume mindlessly and discard haphazardly, is creating problems in:
- the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere. NASA has calculated it at 412 parts per million (ppm) and rising. This compares with 370ppm in 2000 and 280ppm at the start of the industrial revolution. “Scientists know the increases in carbon dioxide are caused primarily by human activities because carbon produced by burning fossil fuels has a different ratio of heavy-to-light carbon atoms, so it leaves a distinct “fingerprint” that instruments can measure…” according to NASA’s team leader for their Orbiting Carbon Observatory Satellites- in case anyone had doubts about the origin of this build-up.
- the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere will affect plant and crop yields, and water consumption for growing crops. More water will be needed and- if this year’s multiple crises of river systems is anything to go by, this might become problematic. Droughts have affected river systems in the US, across Europe (particularly Germany and Italy), Turkey, in China and Pakistan. Given that there are 8 billion people on this planet- most dependent on these natural water systems which seem to have become more erratic, this could lead to direct famines and massive food inflation.
- the increase in Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) into the atmosphere which is building up the Greenhouse Effect. Methane- 84 more times as potent as CO2, though more short-lived, emanates mainly from natural gas and livestock animals- both of which have seen huge growth over the last century. N20 is 264 times more potent than CO2 and emanates from the manufacture of fertilizers, from agriculture.
It becomes obvious that the changes required to prevent the globe from moving beyond our 1.5-degree Celsius self-imposed cap will go far further than everyone switching to Electric Cars. It will have to extend to our consumption of meat. This is challenging in a world where more people move out of poverty as they transition to more protein-based diets. So, a balance would need to be found where the absolute levels of meat consumption would fall without adversely impacting the more vulnerable poor.
The 1.5C cap would mean a severe restriction on our economic activity going forward. Estimates suggest that we have already used up 80% of our carbon budget if we want to restrict ourselves to the 2.8 trillion tons of CO2 release that corresponds to that goal. As we can already see the manifest changes at 1.2C even a 1.5C change might mean drastically changed weather patterns globally. Global heat records are being set daily and Europe is heating up faster than most of the rest of the world even as the US, Africa and China suffer droughts.
The question is then: knowing what we know about the possible devastation overshooting 1.5C can cause and how little time we have to prevent it, what are we prepared to do about it? Because, at this point, it really is a matter of political will. Fossil fuel companies are price-gouging in the teeth of an economic cost of living crisis even as they claim tax concessions for exploration. Solar energy is already the lowest cost energy supplier in most parts of the globe despite a hostile policy environment in the US and UK. COP27 needs to be less of one of those taxpayer-funded jaunts that mask the lack of real initiatives and urgency required at this point and more of a global call to arms. Groups like Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil are fringe groups that have taken to raising general awareness through high visibility action and protests, but they will become mainstream within a year if the effects of the current level of inaction is to continue.
Government intervention is needed: to raise awareness amongst the general populace, to educate it about the necessary changes required and finally to put in place systems of incentives (subsidies for insulation, conversion to solar/ wind/ tidal power, waste recycling, public transportation) and disincentives (taxes on fossil fuels, private cars, airplane travel, luxury cruise ships etc). The top 10% of people contribute four times more to greenhouse gases than the bottom 50%. The hardest thing for people to accept will be the lifestyle changes this will entail to ensure sustainability. But we’ve created the mess and it is our responsibility to limit all further damage.